Nate Silver will make one firm prediction about the midterms. Most journalists won’t want to hear it.


#TIA – Nate Silver is right about one thing: the danger in journalists being misled by their own reporting. And the still worse error if we believe them.

“After the roller-coaster ride of 2016’s election night, have journalists and political junkies learned not to let conventional wisdom substitute for hard knowledge?

Nate Silver — the closest thing there is to a celebrity in the arcane field of statistical journalism — is not wildly optimistic about that.

“Media understanding about probability, margin of error and uncertainty is very poor,” Silver said Monday afternoon when I stopped by the Manhattan office of his for a pre-election chat.”

Read more at The Washington Post